Dogecoin and Maker stole the spotlight as the hype around COIN faded and Bitcoin consolidates near $63,500. Now that the Coinbase (COIN) stock listing i...
Dogecoin and Maker stole the spotlight as the hype around COIN faded and Bitcoin consolidates near $63,500. Now that the Coinbase (COIN) stock listing i...
Almost 5 million Swedes have indirect exposure to Bitcoin through the shares held by state pension fund AP7. Almost 5 million Swedish savers have, larg...
A volatility-filled listing for Coinbase’s COIN stock coincided with a 5% drop in the price of Bitcoin. Following months of build-up and speculation, Co...
Elrond price rallied to a record high as the project's pivot toward NFTs and DeFi attracts new users and investors. As mainstream cryptocurrency adopti...
The highly anticipated public listing of Coinbase stock is leading Bitcoin and Ether to rally, but what will happen afterward? Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (...
In less than two months, one Canadian Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.1 billion in assets under management, while two more funds are also growing their AUMs. T...
MSTR rallied by as much as 10% on Tuesday, just one day after an SEC filing showed that non-employee board members will be paid in BTC. Shares of Micr...
The pending hard fork will take the first steps in addressing Ether’s high transaction fees. Ether (ETH) surged to a new all-time high on Tuesday, with ...
A U.S. firm expects to double its Bitcoin hashing power after the purchase of 4,800 new S19J mining rigs from Bitmain. Pennsylvania software firm Integr...
"Mmmmmmm... Bitcoin..." The Simpsons, one of the most popular animated sitcoms in TV history, has made a rather bullish prediction for the price of Bitc...
While bitcoin’s price has been consolidating for quite some time now, every now and then bulls have tried to press the price past the psychological all-time high captured in March. Meanwhile, a few bitcoiners have been saying that the bull market is “just getting started” even though the price has multiplied in value quite a […]
Bitcoin is stuck in a "tame" post-halving scenario and has far to run before reaching its cycle peak, says the popular research outlet. Bitcoin (BTC) is...
Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital is the latest Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applicant in the United States. Galaxy Digital has submitted a Bitcoin (BTC) ...
It’s a sea of green across cryptocurrency on Monday as all-time highs come back within reach for Bitcoin. Bitcoin (BTC) is back with a vengeance this we...
Robert Kiyosaki, the best-selling author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” has predicted that the price of bitcoin will increase to $1.2 million within five years. Kiyosaki revealed that he bought bitcoin at $9,000, adding that he may buy the cryptocurrency again “today or tomorrow just because I’m more bullish on it.” Robert Kiyosaki Expects Bitcoin’s […]
It may sound shocking today, but in 2010 software developer Gavin Andresen was on a mission to give away free BTC in an effort to boost adoption. Reddi...
Guggenheim CIO Scott Minerd has warned crypto investors about bitcoin’s pullback. He said bitcoin “clearly has gotten caught in a speculative bubble that Gamestop got into.” However, he noted that it will be a “great entry point” for long-term investors. ‘Great Entry Point’ for Bitcoin Investors The chief investment officer (CIO) of Guggenheim Partners, Scott […]
Bitcoin on-chain data reveals that speculators and long-term holders have become increasingly confident of higher prices as their selling activity has slowed down significantly.
For the very first time in a Bitcoin (BTC) bull market, not only long-term investors but also short-term speculators who usually add to the daily sell pressure toward the end of a market cycle have become increasingly confident of higher prices as they hold on to their Bitcoin.
This only adds to the already existing supply shock. If demand remains strong, this is a recipe for another leg up for the BTC price.
Every Bitcoin bull market usually coincided with an increasing number of short-term speculators coming into the market hoping to turn a quick profit, while long-term speculators start to add sell pressure toward the second half of the market cycle to realize their profits.
One of the best on-chain indicators to see this trend unfold in each cycle is called HODL waves. Hereby, the length at which each BTC address holds Bitcoin before they are sold into the market is clustered into term buckets that are then visualized in different color bands.
For example, someone who held on to their Bitcoin for five months would fall into the 3m-6m bucket, the light orange color band. If that person decides to sell, it falls out of that bucket and would show up in the 24h-term bucket, the dark red color band.
This means, the redder the colors are in the HODL waves chart on a respective date, the more short-term turnover of Bitcoins happens. This activity is almost at its lowest during a bear market, and at its highest during a bull market, while the short-term activity tends to peak around a bull market top.
Since the Bitcoin price fluctuates significantly during the market cycles, and HODL waves only account for the absolute number of Bitcoins moved, this chart does not account for the total value realized on a respective day by a Bitcoin seller.
As it becomes increasingly lucrative for hodlers to take profit the higher the price rises, the HODL waves can be weighted by the realized price, which is the price at which each Bitcoin on average was last bought /sold.
This adjustment allows for visualizing the value-driven profit-taking on a daily basis through the value-adjusted colored, term buckets.
Once HODL waves are weighted by the realized price, the Realized Cap HODL Waves are derived, a concept that was first introduced by on-chain analyst Typerbole. This adjustment reveals that the 1w-1m bucket tops coincide with every single bull market top so far.
This indicator does not only suggest that the current selling activity is not at a typical bull market peak yet, it even reveals that for the first time in Bitcoin's bull market history this trend is declining while the price continues to rise.
This is a very unusual trend in a bull market. Assuming that the price peak has not been reached yet, this suggests that profit-seekers, whether they are short- or long-term focused, are starting to hold on to their Bitcoin again, expecting higher prices to come and by that adding to the Bitcoin supply squeeze on exchanges.
Rafael Schultze-Kraft, Glassnode CTO, takes a similar view by looking at long-term hodlers through Coin Days Destroyed, an indicator that shows the total holding days "destroyed" by holders selling their Bitcoin.
Based on a 3-months moving average of this indicator, the destruction has retraced to a level last seen in the summer of 2019 at times where the price peak was already reached.
Ok, this is beautiful.
— Rafael Schultze-Kraft (@n3ocortex) April 9, 2021
Experimenting with Coin Days Destroyed: Despite $BTC prices above $50k, 3-month CDD at low levels and recently declining.
Old hands extremely strong here, HODLers showing conviction and doing what they do best.
Doesn't look like a top to me.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/z8OL8Gt73E
If the price was close to a bull market peak, a much higher indicator value would be expected as long-term holders would be taking profit in material size, which is currently not the case.
When taking this concept of Coin Days Destroyed further and looking at it with respect to average value destroyed in perspective to the market capitalization, one arrives at the so-called dormancy flow. This is a concept invented by analyst and trader David Puell.
The dormancy flow describes the yearly moving average of Bitcoin holders’ spending behavior. It is based on the held value that gets destroyed in perspective to the overall accrued value in the market.
This indicator suggests, the 365-day average spending behavior of Bitcoin measured in USD is very healthy and far below prior bull market spending.
Bitcoin selling activity whether it is from speculators or long-term holders is declining while also the annual spending behavior relative to the market capitalization is surprisingly low. All these on-chain data points suggest that the market is inching to an even deeper supply squeeze. This is one of the best rocket fuels to send the Bitcoin price higher.
However, this is not a guarantee as it requires continuous demand for the price to appreciate in this environment. Therefore, a close eye on high-net-worth individuals and institutions' demand should be kept, as they have recently been the main driver on the buyer side.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Nothing here should be considered investment or trading advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. The author owns Bitcoin. You should conduct your own research when making a decision and/or consult with a financial advisor.
According to professional trader Scott Melker, Ethereum’s “tremendous upside potential” could overshadow Bitcoin this year. Ethereum is likely to outpe...
Cryptocurrency markets have gathered fresh gains this weekend, as bitcoin’s value spiked above the $60k handle touching $61,222 per unit during the early morning trading sessions on Saturday (EST). Moreover, a number of digital assets saw price jumps as well, as the entire market capitalization of all 9,190 crypto-assets in existence is over $2 trillion […]
The crypto space can rest easy on Bitcoin’s survival — a lone Reddit user has got you covered. In the years since Bitcoin’s 2009 launch, the crypto in...
Both Bitcoin's daily volume and the amount held by large addresses roughly match 10% of gold's. After rallying more than 100% in 2021, Bitcoin (BTC) see...
Bitcoin price appears to be gaining bullish momentum after BTC bounced off the lower Bollinger Band. A wave of selling took command of the cryptocurrenc...
On-chain data suggests Bitcoin price will likely breakout to a new all-time-high soon, as whales, miners and long-term hodlers turn bullish again. The p...
By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more
The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.